This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatality risk and per capita income and uses it to forecast traffic fatalities by geographic region. Equations for the road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components—the rate of motorization (vehicles/population) and fatalities per vehicle (F/V)—are estimated using panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries. The natural logarithm of F/P, V/P, and F/V are expressed as spline (piecewise linear) functions of the logarithm of real per capita GDP (measured in 1985 international prices).
Traffic Fatalities and Economic GrowthMaureen Cropper and Elizabeth Kopits ,
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Accident Analysis and Prevention