Traffic Fatalities and Economic Growth
Maureen Cropper and Elizabeth Kopits
,
1
(
37
)
Accident Analysis and Prevention
169-178
January
2005
wp3.pdf1.72 MB
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between traffic fatality risk and per capita income and uses it to forecast traffic fatalities by geographic region. Equations for the road death rate (fatalities/population) and its components—the rate of motorization (vehicles/population) and fatalities per vehicle (F/V)—are estimated using panel data from 1963 to 1999 for 88 countries. The natural logarithm of F/P, V/P, and F/V are expressed as spline (piecewise linear) functions of the logarithm of real per capita GDP (measured in 1985 international prices).