A Structural Model of Electoral Accountability
S. Boragan Aruoba, Allan Drazen and Razvan Vlaicu
,
NBER Working Paper
April
2015
Abstract
This paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the effects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection effects, using data on U.S. governors for 1982-2012. We find that the possibility of reelection provides a significant incentive for incumbents to exert effort. We also find a selection effect, although it is weaker in terms of its effect on average governor performance.