AIDS, Reversal of the Demographic Transition and Economic Development: Evidence from Africa

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan , Journal of Population Economics 25(3) , 871-897 , July 2012.

Using country- and region-level data, I investigate the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Africa during 1985−2000. Results differ depending on the variation used and the estimation method. Between estimates that exploit cross-sectional variation suggest a positive significant effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility, whereas within estimates that are identified of off time-series variation show both positive and negative results depending on the HIV/AIDS variable used. These within estimates are insignificant in most of the specifications.

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