Deseasonalizing Turkish Macroeconomic Data: A Caveat to Applied Researchers in Turkey

S. Boragan Aruoba and C. Emre Alper, Istanbul Stock Exchange Review 5(18), 33-52, April .


This paper analyzes the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Turkey due to the religious events (religious holidays and Ramadan)[1] in monthly frequency. Conventional deterministic deseasonalization techniques are applied to the detrended and linearized major macroeconomic series. Investigation of the seasonally filtered series reveals residual seasonal regularities vis-à-vis the religious holidays and Ramadan  for some of the series. Consequences of ignoring this type of seasonality are also scrutinized.

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