Deseasonalizing Turkish Macroeconomic Data: A Caveat to Applied Researchers in Turkey
This paper analyzes the effects of regular seasonal fluctuations of macroeconomic variables in Turkey due to the religious events (religious holidays and Ramadan) in monthly frequency. Conventional deterministic deseasonalization techniques are applied to the detrended and linearized major macroeconomic series. Investigation of the seasonally filtered series reveals residual seasonal regularities vis-à-vis the religious holidays and Ramadan for some of the series. Consequences of ignoring this type of seasonality are also scrutinized.