A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey

S. Boragan Aruoba , Central Bank Review 13(1) , 15-29 , January 2013.

This paper presents a monthly indicator of real economic activity for historical accounting and real-time monitoring of business cycles in Turkey. Business conditions, an unobserved component implied by the interaction and co-movement of various macroeconomic variables, are related to a number of observables at multiple frequencies and estimated within a dynamic factor model. We introduce a recession indicator and thereby compare the severity of turbulence/crisis periods during 1987-2011. High degree of uncertainty embodied in the end-of-sample factor estimates complicates real time detection of recessions and thus points to the need for timely information in a forward-looking policy framework.

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