Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections
Noah Meyerson, John Sabelhaus
,
3
(
53
)
National Tax Journal
515-530
September
2000
meyerson and sabelhaus 2000.pdf1003.22 KB
Abstract
This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model, characterizing uncertainty about model inputs, and generating useful measures of the uncertainty about model outputs. There are significant trade-offs to be made at each step, which can affect measured uncertainty in important ways.