Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections
Noah Meyerson, John Sabelhaus ,
3
( 53 )
National Tax Journal
515-530
September
2000
Abstract

This paper presents measures of uncertainty about Social Security Trust Fund projections based on the new Long-Term Actuarial Model (LTAM) being developed at the Congressional Budget Office. Measuring the variance in Social Security outcomes involves three steps: specifying a model, characterizing uncertainty about model inputs, and generating useful measures of the uncertainty about model outputs. There are significant trade-offs to be made at each step, which can affect measured uncertainty in important ways.

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