A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey
S. Boragan Aruoba
,
1
(
13
)
Central Bank Review
15-29
January
2013
Abstract
This paper presents a monthly indicator of real economic activity for historical accounting and real-time monitoring of business cycles in Turkey. Business conditions, an unobserved component implied by the interaction and co-movement of various macroeconomic variables, are related to a number of observables at multiple frequencies and estimated within a dynamic factor model. We introduce a recession indicator and thereby compare the severity of turbulence/crisis periods during 1987-2011.