Prof. Aruoba and his coauthor Frank Schorfheide from the University of Pennsylvania prepared and delivered a paper at the 39th Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, titled "Inflation Dynamics During and After The Zero Lower Bound". They compare the experiences of the United States, Japan and Europe during periods where the monetary policy rate of each country was constrained by zero. They argue that the policies enacted by the Federal Reserve in 2008-2009 helped prevented a prolonged deflationary episode in the United States, in stark contrast with the experience of Japan since late 1990s. Their analysis also shows that an increase in the Federal Reserve's inflation target is unlikely to have positive consequences. The program and the papers can be found here. Two press reports can be found here and here.